Predictable DC Drumbeat that Romney is Toast

If one listened only to the Washington Beltway echo chamber this week, the presidential campaign is over.

Not only did Romney ‘mishandle’ the sacking of the U.S. embassy in Libya, but he’s also “lost Ohio” and thus the election because of several polls confirming the President maintains a small “lead.”

And that’s one of the biggest flaws of the reporting and armchair commentary.

When one sees reporting that says Obama ‘leads’ Romney 47%-45% is state X, that’s actually terrifying news for any incumbent. This is the case in any number of states where Obama ‘leads’ Romney but is not close to 50%.

This is what GOP pollster Whit Ayres correctly calls the incumbent’s ‘never-never land of 47%, 48% and 49%.” Hitting 50% +1 for Obama will be a continual uphill fight in a variety of battleground states like Florida and Virginia — no matter what we hear and see now — due to the economy and horrendous right track/wrong track #’s.

Granted, Romney still has quite a bit to do in terms of even getting to the point of possibly closing the deal — he’s indeed behind, still needs to package his agenda more succinctly, and the ruthlessness of the Obama campaign has kept him back on his heels.

But still, campaigns change quickly.

With debates and so many surprises left in store, anything can happen — and Romney is very much in the thick of the contest, no matter what one sees from DC talking heads, most of whom, pathetically, have never even worked on a campaign.

Romney Wave or Obama Squeaker?

As the GOP Convention convenes in Tampa and Republicans eagerly await Mitt Romney’s acceptance speech, the sense is developing among several analysts that either Romney will pull away at the end in a modest ‘wave election’ and win a bit more handily than the current thinking, or, Obama ekes out a narrow victory.

That is very logical, and similar to the Reagan-Carter 1980 election model whereby Reagan passed the key ‘threshold of credibility’ during the debates to allow voters to feel comfortable in dumping Carter.

Presuming a strong convention speech — it’s hard to blow it — Mitt Romney will go into the critical debate phase of the campaign highly underestimated in his debating skills vis a vis Obama. Intrade and other insider spectators (mostly from DC) continue to give Obama the advantage, and generally believe he will squeak out a win with a state by state strategy — treating the presidential race as a series of statewide contests.

That’s a smart strategy for Obama, and essentially the only plausible means towards achieving a structural electoral college victory. That is still the conventional wisdom.

But with the economy in the tank, Obama’s unfav creeping ever higher, Obama hovering at 45/46/47 in a variety of key battleground states — and an underestimated Mitt Romney — I’m betting Romney, like Reagan, will pass the credibility threshold and win by 3-4 points. The corollary benefit of that small wave will be the GOP taking control of the Senate with 51 seats.

Health Reform Underway Regardless of Supreme Court Decision

Former Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (MedPAC) Administrator Donald Berwick is right about one thing: regardless of the Supreme Court ruling on the Affordable Care Act (ACA), health care reforms are already being driven in the private sector marketplace.

In a speech Monday at the American Health Lawyers Association’s annual meeting in Chicago, Berwick noted that the “reform train has already left the station.” He added that many changes, such as the shift toward team-based care structures and the implementation of care coordination programs are already meeting their goals in terms of lowering healthcare costs.

While the power and import of the Supreme Court, the President and Congress are preeminent in the context of law and regulatory policy, the dynamism of the U.S. private sector and the healthcare marketplace itself is the primary driver of transformative changes that elevate quality and comparative provider costs to the fore, where they belong.

Poll: Small Business Tax Cuts Have Appeal to GOP and Dems

Tax breaks for small businesses are popular, and that’s some welcome news for those of us who run small corporations, and shoulder the lion’s share of the U.S. tax burden. Taxes are up, costs are up, and, while profits are up, working seven days is just a fact of life. Thus, working for yourself is just like a campaign — seven day work weeks. Fortunately, work is fun — but we still need to see lower tax rate, and some new data provides hope.

The good news is that a new United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll finds tax breaks for businesses are popular. When asked what Congress could do to help the economy and create jobs, the top answer picked by poll respondents (37 percent of them) to improve the economy was “passing tax cuts for small businesses to encourage them to hire more workers.” Republicans particularly embraced that approach (52 percent), but it was also the most popular option selected among both Democratic voters (35 percent) and independents (32 percent).

Help on the horizon.

DC Slowly Understanding Romney Can Win

While all eyes are on the Wisconsin recall tonite, and no declared winner yet, am going to have to say how slow DC moves in recognizing Mitt Romney is more likely than not to win the Presidency. Unsurprisingly, most of official Washington is relatively oblivious to the unfolding dynamic.

When Obama senior campaign adviser David Axelrod showed up in Boston to lead the thrashing of Mitt Romney, this was reminiscent of the Bush/Quayle ’92 campaign — which dispatched a team to Little Rock to trash Bill Clinton’s Arkansas record.

Unfortunately, I was there, and one of those in charge (to my chagrin).

It didn’t work then, and it won’t work now.

The only issue is jobs and economic leadership.

Barack Obama will likely take his place along side George H.W. Bush as a one term president. The current President, like Bush, is slowly sinking into the quicksand caused by poor economic stewardship.

Plain and simple.

POS/Hart Survey Underscores Potency of Attacking Lawmaker Votes to Cut Medicare

As the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives begin making crucial budgetary decisions for FY 2013, a recent survey conducted for the Alliance for Quality Nursing Home Care by Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research Associates underscores the saliency political operatives find in attacking incumbents who expose themselves to such attacks by supporting Medicare cuts — in this case to nursing homes.

The survey (January 26-30, 800 RV’s [700 landline/100 cell] +/- 3.46%) finds 82% of RV’s oppose reducing Medicare funding for seniors’ nursing home care; 90% say funding for U.S. nursing home care should either “remain the same” or “increase”; and, interestingly, a full 69% support the concept of phasing-in a controversial 2011 Obama Medicare regulation that reduced Medicare funding by 11.1% all at one time.

With Republicans and Democrats both suffering major losses in back to back congressional elections — as each side in successive cycles absorbed attacks ads accusing incumbents for cutting seniors’ Medicare benefits — it’s no surprise both sides are circling each other warily as the FY 2013 budget negotiations take shape.

Private polling done for a health care provider group in Texas last year, as well as polling conducted for the Texas Tribune, found cuts to seniors’ nursing home care are among the most unpopular cuts of nearly a dozen options mentioned. This is not lost on ad makers, pollsters, campaign operatives and lawmakers themselves.

Gingrich the DC “Outsider”

As the Florida GOP race moves to Florida and a new Rasmussen survey finds Gingrich with 41%, Romney with 32% and Santorum at 11%, the Romney campaign is wrestling with the fact Newt has completely turned the tables and is now the insurgent ‘outsider’ who will bring change to Washington.

Of course, this is preposterous. Gingrich can’t change Washington, because he is Washington.

This is a dangerous time for Romney, and the fact Gingrich has flipped the insider vs. outsider dynamic on its head with relative ease, and through sheer force of personality and intellect, will require Romney to flip the insider-outsider table back over. What a brawl.

Romney Polling Spike In South Carolina Breaks Glass Ceiling

The rap on Mitt Romney in both national surveys and states beyond just his home geo base in NH is that he cannot poke through approximately 25% in this large multi-candidate.

While just one survey, the new CNN/Time/ORC South Carolina poll puts Romney at 37% followed by Santorum at 18%.

Psychologically, if anything, this data portends good news as the sheer weight of the NH, SC, FL gauntlet bares down on the shrinking GOP field.

While NH is where Romney needs to meet his expectations, and where the focus on the deluge of polls are at the moment, this new little polling tidbit from South Carolina is as revealing as it is likely prescient of where things could be in just several weeks: over and done with.

Wyden Says Dem Outrage Over Teaming With Ryan on Medicare Will Subside

Senate Democrats on Capitol Hill were more than miffed at Sen. Ron Wyden’s (D-OR) decision to join Republican Paul Ryan on a new Medicare reform plan. But Wyden says the negative criticism will subside once the plan is actually reviewed.

But that’s not likely in this hyper-partisan environment — and especially because it dilutes the attacks the DCCC and DSCC hoped to use (and will still use) against GOP candidates who had expressed previous support for the first Ryan plan earlier this year.

“There’s no question that when you try to break the gridlock and in this case for the longest running battle since the Trojan War, you stir a lot of passions,” Wyden told POLITICO. “My hope is in the days ahead that folks are going to read it.”

Not likely. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi suggested that the Wyden-Ryan plan would allow Medicare to “wither on the vine,” and White House spokesman Jay Carney said it was just another plan to “end Medicare.”

The DC Herd Jumps on “Newt Has Peaked” Bandwagon

One benefit of my office setup — some say a liability that perpetuates a narrow Beltway perspective — is that i watch MSNBC, Fox News, CNN and CNBC throughout the course of the business day.

One benefit is sensing shift in narratives and storylines — much like ‘watching the tape’ as they use to say on Wall Street, when intuitive brokers could sense a broader market move just by watching the action in real time.

Today marked a clear turning point in Newt Gingrich’s fortunes if one goes by the metric of cable spin. All day long, Newt’s Intrade collapse and several IA tracking polls have prompted a rush by the DC class to proclaim he has peaked.

While I personally believe this to be true based simply on my own intuition, the one reality is this: Newt is being hammered with a barrage of tough advertising from Ron Paul and the Romney Super Pac, and has decided to let the negative ads go unanswered.

Bottom line: this is a fatal strategy, and Gingrich may now lose Iowa to Paul or perhaps even Romney. Newt must win Iowa to meet expectations — but that is now very much in doubt.