When all is said and done in statewide New Jersey contests, fundraising is right at the top of variables in determining the Election Day winner, and that’s Tom Kean Jr.’s biggest problem right now.

According to the latest FEC data, incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Menendez raised $2.5M in the first quarter, leaving him with $6.36 million cash on hand. Kean raised $1.6M, leaving him with approximately $2 million cash on hand.

Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report – the nation’s sharpest U.S. Senate race analyst — says Kean has to increase his fundraising “dramatically” to make up for the multimillion-dollar Menendez advantage.

And despite trying for over two weeks to find a single NJ Republican confident Kean can stay competitive with Menendez in the fundraising department, DCspectator found not one. Moreover, none were even willing to go on the record to comment on Kean’s campaign besides offering the usual bromides that “it’s still early” and that “Menendez is too corrupt to win.” While hoping to write a more optimistic piece, this has not turned out to be the case.

Kean is also increasingly being harangued from the right by GOP primary challenger John Ginty, who is busy blasting Kean for being a big spender “in the mold of Christie Todd Whitman,” and his support for certain abortion rights, NJ’s strict gun control laws and embryonic stem-cell research.

Menendez, meanwhile, has been using his time to blast the Dubai ports deal, and pitch homeland security funding for NJ, the fight against the alternative minimum tax, the need for NJ transportation aid and reform of the Medicare prescription drug benefit – issues all perfectly attuned to the voters who will decide this election.

Some have said Kean’s primary situation can help him season his campaign team as a warm-up for Menendez, a veritable campaign animal, as well as assist Kean in helping define himself in a manner reminiscent of his father. All things being equal, this primary is a most unwelcome development, and is a distraction from the fundraising effort.

Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine’s approval rating has taken a dive according to Quinnipiac and other recent polls, and his unpopular handling of the state budget appears to be the main drag on his 35 percent approval rating. Despite the fact this may indeed hurt Menendez, it will not likely be a central factor in the race, even according to most Republicans interviewed.

“Menendez and corruption” must be the central message, one said, in addition to making the case that “Kean Jr. and Kean Sr. are essentially the same political brand, and represent the same issues and values.” It would seem, though, that Kean Jr. must first do a solid job of defining his own brand before simply attempting to claim the mantle of the old man – and for that he needs the cash. This all ends where it began: Kean must rapidly improve his fundraising effort if he hopes to have a chance.

Photo courtesy of www.dailyrecord.com

The reports are in: As Chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), Chuck Schumer is blowing away his GOP counterpart, National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Elizabeth Dole.

The DSCC raised $6.9M in March ’06 compared to the NRSC’s $5M, and maintains a crushing
$32.1M to $16.5M cash-on-hand edge as the campaign committee strategists begin seriously evaluating where to place their financial chips on the national board.

One NJ Republican working to elect Tom Kean Jr. in the Jersey Senate contest — already concerned about Kean’s slow fundraising pace — worried the growing DSCC/NRSC fundraising disparity will further hurt the GOP candidate in the campaign end game.

“Schumer’s kicking our ass in the fundraising department — and we need to get moving,” said the Kean-backer.

In years past, through the 2002 elections, the NRSC consistently crushed the DSCC in the race for cash. In the 2001-2002 cycle, the GOP committee raised $154.4 million, compared with the Senate Democrats’ $60.3 million.

But this trend has been turned in recent years. In the 2003-2004 cycle, Democrats for the first time pulled ahead of the NRSC. Based on the new fundraising reports, the Washington Post is reporting today that “there have been growing complaints in Republican circles about the chairmanship of Sen. Elizabeth Dole (N.C.), who was elected to the post in part because of her reputation as a fundraiser.”

Ken Bazinet of the NY Daily News DC bureau goes farthest out on the limb today on the speculative reporting surrounding Scott McClellan’s replacement at the White House.

Bazinet reports, “Tony Snow, a conservative commentator at Fox News, is emerging as the front-runner to replace McClellan, a source confirmed. Former deputy press secretary Trent Duffy is also a dark horse, as is former Iraq coalition government spokesman Dan Senor.”

After some quick checking around this morning, Bazinet appears to be correct. Tony Snow is indeed emerging as not just the leading candidate, but perhaps the only candidate. Trent Duffy, despite being held in high regard by the WH, is the “right guy at the wrong time,” said one GOP operative familiar with the press secretary deliberations.

“What’s needed,” he said this morning, “is a person of stature outside of the original ‘W’ campaign circle but who is trusted by the larger Bush family circle at large. Bang — that’s Tony Snow.”

Tony, in fact, worked in the David Demarest-led communications shop in the first Bush Administration, and had an outstanding reputation with Bush insiders even prior to moving on to Fox News.

Dan Senor, who’s set to make a huge pile of dough in the private sector, is said not to be trusted by “the people that matter” because of his editing involvement in Paul Bremer’s new book about the post-invasion Iraqi occupation. Big deal — he’s his own guy. Senor’s stock in town is huge right now — the WH is the last place he would or should want to work.

Best line on background in the WH “shake-up” stories today is also in the Bazinet Daily News story.

“A lot of people are bummed out today,” said a White House aide.

And despite the fact there should be a piece already posted on the Menendez-Kean NJ Senate race, it’s been tough to find anyone, even Republicans, to say good things about Kean Jr. More on this race shortly…

At first glance, it would appear that Donald Trump and Grateful Dead guitarist Bob Weir have nothing in common.

At second glance, one could say the same thing.

But it was highly unusual, in fact bizarre, when Trump, attired in suit and red power tie, took the stage at the venerable Beacon Theater at 74th and Broadway last Thursday night to introduce Weir’s kick-ass band, Ratdog, as they began a sold out three night run to end their 2006 spring tour.

While missing the Thursday night show and the Trump intro (in which he was heartily booed by a sizable portion of the audience), I made the Friday and Saturday night shows, which were outstanding. But beyond noting in his welcome that the Grateful Dead sold out more Madison Square Garden shows than any other band in history, why would Trump show up at a Dead-related gig to intro Bob Weir, an original member of the Dead?

Major Deadhead Bill Walton was at Weir’s NYC/Beacon show last spring, hangin’ with JFK-Jr. pal John Perry Barlow — Weir’s longtime friend and lyricist; Trump was here this year; If NY GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill Weld, himself a legit Dead enthusiast (saw him at Boston Garden in the early 90′s), makes it to the general election, which is increasingly likely, he should hit the fall Beacon show/s for a photo op.

On one level, the Trump gambit could simply have been a freak-out stunt designed to startle tie-dyed jamband fans in what we’ll just call a good state of mind — and it did. Meanwhile, Trump stayed for a good part of the first set and appeared to be enjoying himself amid the thick fog of high-end Mendocino, despite the fact he, famously, doesn’t even drink liquor.

One thing’s for sure: Trump doesn’t do anything, anywhere, anytime that would reflect poorly on the Trump brand. And Weir, who keeps his politics relatively in check in favor of just playing terrific high energy music — very much in the Grateful Dead tradition of no political preaching — must have known this would be viewed with interest: The capitalist icon bestowing welcome and accolades on a counterculture icon.

Interestingly, the Grateful Dead/jamband-oriented chatboards are generally positive on the Trump appearance — it appears to be about 70%-30% fav/unfav, with the most frequent sentiment being that those who booed Trump are stuck-in-the-past ideologues and hypocrites who treated one of Bobby’s guests rudely. I fall squarely in this camp, and embarassing Bobby was, in plain language, very uncool.

More on this as info is unearthed from the Trump and Weir worlds.

Picture 1 of Trump and Weir courtesy of Alan Hess, via Ratdog.org.

Picture 2 of Bob Weir courtesy of Dave Rosenberg, via Ratdog.org.

In part two of DCspectator’s interview with GOP consultant Roger Stone, Hillary’s ’08 challenges and the ’08 GOP presidential primary are discussed:

DCs: Lots of Republicans I talk to here in town think, flatly, that Hillary is unelectable and cannot possibly ever be elected President, which, frankly, is total B.S. You agree?

RS: Oh, she most definitely can win. But I think it is not likely, but I don’t think it’s by any means outside the realm of possibility. Politics is about having a base, and she’s got a sizable base in this country; quite sizable and able to be mobilized. She’ll have access to vast sums of money.

I’m told Terry McAuliffe is telling Democratic finance guys that he’s going to raise almost $800 million – and he can do that in my opinion – and she’s not going to lack for excellent political advice from her husband, who is quite Nixonian in his strategic thinking.

DCs: What about Mark Warner? He’s an impressive guy, actually, but he lacks the experience on the national stage that really takes the measure of a politician. Is he more than just the flavor of the month alternative to Hillary?

RS: Back up, first we need to talk more about Hillary. Here’s her fundamental problem in my view: She has moved to the center too soon. There has been an assumption made that she cannot be assailed from the left; that her persona and agenda is left-enough that the left stays locked down, and therefore has safely moved to the center on the war and national security issues.
I think she has moved too soon – there’s real vulnerability for her on the war. The war has the potential to be the defining issue in the 2008 race as it was in 1968.

I believe the strongest candidate to give her a real run for the nomination isn’t Warner or anyone else – it’s former Vice-President Al Gore. One, he has the stature – he was Vice President. Two, he has a network of people in all 50 states. Third, he has so many issues he can say he was right about. Four, there is an underlying feeling he was cheated out of the presidency among democrats, and fifth, he’s clean on the war. In fact, he’s been an articulate critic, but in a most Nixonian way has picked his shots; he’s done it in thoughtful speeches in front of important audiences, and hasn’t done too much of it – just when he has something important to say.

He’s handled himself quite well as of late, and he also has the excellent opportunity — again like Nixon – to present himself as the “New Gore” – that he’s had time to think about the great problems of the day; that he has the perspective, and has looked back on the war, and that he’s going to run to save his party and country. The rationale is there.

DCs: As far as the GOP in 2008 is concerned, the McCain attempt to reconcile with the evangelical community is front and center. Will it work?

RS: Here’s the bottom line: McCain is quietly and skillfully picking up large pieces of political real estate in the GOP. I think he’ll have a surprising number of commitments from his Senate colleagues, Republican Governors and Bush money guys and operatives who were not with him last time. He’s touched base with the Cuban community in Miami; He’s tying down important Republican constituencies. I don’t think he expects to be the toast of the religious right or evangelical movement, but he’s not ill-advised to try to dampen their enmity for him. It’s all upside. It’s hard to see why they’re so angry on social issues – he’s a very conservative guy.

Here’s the problem for McCain: in the ideal world, he needs a candidate to his left. It would have been a
great thing for McCain if Rudy had run. Rudy is decidedly to McCain’s left, and in such a contest he’d be the conservative alternative to Giuliani. With no Giuliani in the race – and I don’t think Rudy’s running for president, as much as I think he should – I don’t think he will, and this makes [McCain’s] primary race somewhat more complicated.

So as McCain becomes the party establishment, someone will attempt to emerge to challenge him on his right. Will it be Mitt Romney? Will it be George Allen, or someone else? I’m really impressed with what I’ve see of Mitt Romney thus far. He’s got the same earnestness as his father, he’s impressive on the stump, and he’s tactfully moved right on a whole host of issues in preparation for this contest – stem cell, abortion, gambling. Keep an eye on him.

George Allen is hampered at the moment by his Senate election – it’s more of just an irritant, it will end up a race. The Republican Party is in for a very difficult election season and its going to be a very tough year w/ Republicans on the defense.

Friday: Stone looks at the ’06 New Jersey Senate race between Tom Kean Jr. and Robert Menendez.

In Part 1 of a 4/4 interview with GOP consultant Roger Stone, Stone comments on the ’06 New York State Democratic and GOP gubernatorial contests.

Stone has worked 8 GOP presidential campaigns, from Richard Nixon to the GW Bush ’00 Florida recount, where he handled Dade County.

The Spitzer-Suozzi contest

DCs: Just the fact this is now being called the “Spitzer-Suozzi race” in the popular political lexicon is good news for Suozzi, and the reporting is beginning to reflect the fact it’s an interesting race, and of increasing news value.

RS: Spitzer is mistaking name ID for support at this juncture – he has an impressive lead in the polls, but it’s built almost solely on name ID, and very little of it is rooted in deep knowledge of him and his record. There are aspects of his record that will be troublesome to voters.

First, he has only recently gotten on the bandwagon in cleaning up Medicaid – where has he been for the last seven years?

Second, he has aggressively gone after the prosecution of Ken Langone and Dick Grasso – two prominent Italian Americans; but no penalty to Carl McCall, who is certainly responsible in the entire matter. I also think that he’s not careful enough about who he takes contributions from in terms of people who may or not have business in front of the Attorney General’s office.

DCs: That’s a provocative statement – raising Italian-Americans and Carl McCall.

RS: Well I think it’s questionable whether there’s political pandering there. I’m not saying anything about the guilt or innocence of Carl McCall, but he was in a position of responsibility at the New York Stock Exchange – he signed off on this package.

Eliot, I think, would not — looking at a run for governor — prosecute an African American or harass an African American the way these other two gentlemen have been harassed. So, it’s a question – it’s a vulnerability.

I think Suozzi, in many ways, is a perfect antidote to that. Suozzi is an Italian-Catholic – he’s an attractive, working class guy – he’s imminently more likeable than Eliot, and that’s Eliott’s greatest problem. He’s a dour fellow, he’s very Upper East Side, and he’s an elitist.

He’s done some things well, granted, but running for Governor you have to be likeable. I think you can get elected Attorney General when there’s less focus on your personality, but to be Governor you have to have that quality – and it’s a quality Suozzi has. I think he has that kind of Kennedy style, he’s a young reformer, he was on these issues long before others, and he’s far more credible as a critic of the system.

And that’s Spitzer’s other biggest problem: he hasn’t rocked the boat in Albany – he’s been part of the Albany gang. And now he’s suddenly for reform in an election year? Come on. Suozzi can plausibly make that case. He’s got to build his name ID a little faster – but then you also don’t know what the prospects are here for independent expenditures. Everybody knows that Tom Golisano and other business interests who are opposed to Eliot are looking at funding some kind of political action – that’s an open secret, but whether that’s really going to happen I have no idea. But I do think that if you were going to do that you’d do it in the primary, not in the general election.

DCs: Are we basically looking at a situation where Spitzer will win, but get dinged up, and that Suozzi will over-perform and be “the news” on primary night?

RS: I think that’s the likely outcome. Eliot has to be given his due – he has worked very hard to get to where he is, he’s mostly consolidated the base of the Democratic Party – he sold his soul to Dennis Rivera and 1199; how you can do that and claim to be a reformer I don’t know. But in winning, if he does, he’ll be more vulnerable in the general than current conventional wisdom suggests.

The GOP Gubernatorial Primary

DCs: There’s kind of a basic scrum going on with little movement thus far. What’s the deal?

RS: I think Bill Weld will be the nominee of the Republican Party. He can muster the resources and he has enough conservative credentials to fend off a primary challenge from John Faso.

DCs: But what about Mike Long and the Conservative Party?

RS: That’s obviously problematic – it puts an enormous premium on Weld somehow figuring out how to secure the independent party nomination – which I don’t think is outside the realm of possibility. It’s not clear that’s locked up – Tom Golisano has a lot of influence in that party. It remains to be seen what he does.

DCs: Faso is ahead of Weld by a couple of points in the few polls out there – basically a lead just within the margin of error. How important is that at the moment?

RS: Faso has run statewide in New York, Weld hasn’t – so he’s got some residual name ID from that; he spent several million and ran a very strong race for Comptroller. But in the end, the Party machinery in most places will be for Weld – which is worth something – and Weld will outspend Faso 10-1…

DCs: 10-1?… that large a disparity?

RS: Bill Weld is a very good fundraiser. People should not lose sight of that.

DCs: What about Decker?

RS: I don’t think the Decker issue will be as easy to overcome as perhaps some in the Weld camp think. It is problematic, and a handy lever for opponents. That being said, I have a lot of admiration for Weld’s intellect and his gumption – and he’s got a very supply-side oriented record on taxes, which fits New York State very well. If he wins, as I expect, taxes will be a major factor.

A two-part interview with GOP consultant Roger Stone will be posted beginning tomorrow. Stone says Weld will likely win the NY GOP gubernatorial primary with a strong supply-side tax message, and that Suozzi’s challenge to Spitzer has exposed some new vulnerabilities for the Dem frontrunner.

In part two, Stone comments on Hillary’s ’08 maneuverings, the GOP ’08 contest, and Steve Minarik’s tenure as NY GOP Chairman… and several other items, including the Kean-Menendez ’06 Senate contest.