Charlie Cook is one of the very few election prognosticators in DC who matter, and when he writes or says something, its worth a look.

Making a hurricane-storm surge analogy, he explains today, courtesy of National Journal, the following:

“A hurricane does seem likely to hit the GOP this November. But the micro analysis shows that structural barriers in the House and Senate are protecting the Republican majorities like seawalls, and would likely withstand the surge from a Category 1, 2, or 3 storm. They probably couldn’t withstand a Category 4 or 5, though… In four out of five elections, the micro analysis proves accurate. But in about one out of five, it doesn’t. Will this year be one of those exceptions?”

With the growing chatter about some new help for Karl Rove and Andy Card at the White House — and the President’s refusal to tamp down the speculation at his WH news conference — gonna go out on a limb and predict former Texas Rep. Tom Loeffler will be the guy, IF there is a guy.

Here’s the list of speculative names from today’s New York Times:

“Two Republicans close to the White House who insisted on anonymity to discuss advice they give to Mr.
Bush’s inner circle said the names being suggested to the president included Michael O. Leavitt, secretary of health and human services; Marc Racicot, former chairman of the Republican National Committee; Donald L. Evans, a former commerce secretary; and Ed Gillespie, a former chairman of the Republican Party who shepherded Mr. Bush’s two Supreme Court nominations through the Senate. The list also includes two former members of Congress with ties to Mr. Bush, Thomas G. Loeffler of Texas and Bill Paxon of New York.”

While Don Evans and Eddie Gillespie would both be effective in the White House and on the Hill, Loeffler’s status as a former member of Congress is very important in the current environment. He’s also a very plugged in heavyweight lobbyist, respected inside the Beltway, and has longstanding ties to both Karl and the President — thus passing the loyalty/trustworthy criterion that is the bottom line.

Racicot is too nice, Leavitt is doing a great job where he is.

So Loeffler is the first choice guess, followed by Evans and Gillespie.

The least likely choice is Bill Paxon.

What would an HBO boxing telecast be like without the voice and input of guest judge Harold Lederman? It just wouldn’t be the same.

Lederman celebrated his 20th year on HBO this weekend during the Hasim Rahman-James Toney heavyweight fight. Not a great fight — went to the scorecards and Rahman won. If Toney had been in better shape, he’d have won.

Regardless, for boxing fans who hear Lederman but wonder what he’s all about, first and foremost he’s a fan — and here’s a great interview courtesy of eastsideboxing.com:

When did you start judging boxing matches?

HL-Around 1965, amateur fights. I loved boxing. Before judging I went to as many fights as I could.

When did you start judging pro bouts?

HL-Around 1967.

Did you ever box?

HL-No, just a few street scraps as a kid.

Did you ever work as a referee?

HL-Never really had the interest.

What was the first major fight you judged?

HL-The rematch between Ken Buchanan and Ismael Laguna. Laguna’s manager Cain Young objected everybody. I found out at the last minute that I was judging the match.

The decision of the New Jersey commission to only let New Jersey residents work as officials took a lot of work away. What was your take on that?

HL-I was not happy about it. I didn’t understand the reasoning. I can live in New York and be a pharmacist in New Jersey but not a boxing judge? It didn’t make sense to me. It was political so there was not a whole lot I could do about it. I just accepted it and moved on.

How did you hook up with HBO?

HL-I was friendly with Ross Greenberg who was in charge of boxing at HBO. I had watched a fight on HBO one night and to be honest with you, the announcers must have been watching a different fight then I was. I just thought looking at it from a judge’s point of view that they were missing a lot of things going on. I conveyed this to Ross and he said he’d think about it. I had really forgotten all about it but later he called and invited me to a guest judge at an upcoming fight. I think it took me about three seconds to say yes!

What was your first main event on HBO?

HL-Pinklon Thomas vs. Trevor Berbick, March 22, 1986. Thomas was a huge favorite and I told Eileen, watch Thomas will take out Berbick early. Then no one would hear too much between rounds from me and my chance at HBO would possibly come to an end. Well Berbick had Eddie Futch in his corner and Eddie mapped out a great fight plan and got Berbick to follow it. As the rounds progressed I was able to show my card with Berbick in the process of an upset. In the end I had Berbick winning and he did. He won the title in an upset and my tenure at HBO was on its way.

What was your favorite fight?

HL-The best fight I ever saw was Wilfredo Gomez-Lupe Pintor in New Orleans. I was a judge for that.

Who was your favorite fighter?

HL-Bad Bennie Briscoe. Hagler-Briscoe was one of my favorite fights. I had nothing to do with it. I was just there to watch.

What were some of the best fights you worked for HBO?

HL-Hagler-Leonard, the Bowe-Holyfield trilogy, Lewis-Tyson, Lewis-Mercer, Roy Jones-James Toney, Danny Romero-Johnny Tapia, Barrera-Kennedy McKinney, both Ward-Gatti fights, Ward-Shea Neary, Foreman-Moorer, Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Diego Corrales, and Hopkins-Trinidad.

Your daughter Julie is now a boxing judge. How did that come about?

HL-Julie was a very shy girl but I took her to a lot of fight shows with me. She got to meet many boxers and watched a lot of fights. She really began to understand the sport and she has become a very capable judge. She is a WBC judge and very resected. She was recently a judge at a very high profile

boxing card in Japan. A very important assignment for her.

Who are some of your favorite referees?

HL-Larry Rozadilla comes to mind and Arthur Mercante Sr. My friend Tony Perez has been involved in several major fights. Larry Hazzard was a great one. Chuck Hassett, Lou Fillipo and Joe Cortez.
You mentioned to me that you judged a major bout in my hometown of Cleveland. Do you remember who fought?

HL-It was Michael Moorer and Ramzi Hassan for the vacant W.B.O. light heavyweight title. That day Michael Moorer was a truly awesome fighter!

I have given you a list of fourteen names and asked you to just make a short comment to describe them. What were your comments?

HL-OK, here goes:

” Muhammad Ali-”The Greatest.”
” Mike Tyson-”The Badest Man on The Planet”
” Jim Lampley-”Boxings Greatest Commentator.”
” Larry Merchant-”A Great Analyst.”
” Emmanuel Steward-”Blackie Bimstein.”
” Chris Byrd-”He can do more with what he has then anyone who has ever lived.”
” Don King-”Boxing’s Greatest Promoter.”
” Bob Arum-”Boxing’s Most Brilliant Promoter.”
” Oscar DeLaHoya-”I wish I was him.”
” George Foreman-”The only man I know with two great lives ten years apart.”
” Roy Jones, Jr.-”Boxing’s Number One Pound For Pound.”
” Evander Holyfield-”The Consummate Warrior.”
” Riddick Bowe-”I was so proud to call him my friend.”
” Sugar Ray Leonard-”He drank from the fountain of eternal youth.”

Interview courtesy of Jim Amato
Photo: Carlos Kalinchuk

This is emblematic of how harsh some conservatives are becoming towards George W. Bush.

Peggy Noonan has taken a few shots at Bush in the past year, but equating him with LBJ must be particularly galling to those inside the bunker.

Says Noonan in her opinionjournal.com piece, “I believe it is fair to say most Republicans did not think George W. Bush was motivated to run for the presidency for the primary reason of cutting or controlling spending. But it is also fair to say that they did not think he was Lyndon B. Johnson. And that’s what he’s turned into.”

As the New York Observer reports today that New York Times “rising star” Anne Kornblut (actually, she’s already a star) will cover Hillary Clinton’s low wattage 2006 Senate re-election bid, it’s crystal clear that the Times will cover every aspect of her public and private life like a blanket.

With Kornblut heavily involved in the Times’ reporting on Jack Abramoff and the Delay Inc. K Street crowd, she is well positioned from a sourcing and background knowledge perspective to turn up any number of rocks as they relate to Hillary’s ’06 and possible ’08 fundraising activities. And there’s a lot to look at and scrutinize.

With fellow Timesmen Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta Jr. now working on what’s being called an “investigative biography” of Hillary Clinton — scheduled for release in the fall of 2007 — the naming of Kornblut to the Clinton coverage team promises plenty of fun for readers and plenty of hassles for team Hillary, which maintains the best press and communications operation in American politics today.

Reports the Observer:

“Mrs. Clinton’s camp declined to discuss The Times’ increased attention. “We don’t control how the media covers us,” said Howard Wolfson, a senior adviser to Mrs. Clinton. “We’ll continue to deal with The New York Times as we have in the past.”

Exactly: With caution and with the inherent understanding that 90% of incoming calls from Kornblut will result in negative coverage — not because of any bias she maintains, but because there’s plenty out there that will be “new” on Hillary and her vast fundraising apparatus.

Despite the fact some in the Bush White House say peddling “White House Fatigue” stories as a rationale for poor staff performance is disloyal, or flat wrong, consider the lede in Peter Baker’s Washington Post story today:

Andrew H. Card Jr. wakes at 4:20 in the morning, shows up at the White House an hour or so later, convenes his senior staff at 7:30 and then proceeds to a blur of other meetings that do not let up until long after the sun sets. He gets home at 9 or 10 at night and sometimes fields phone calls until 11 p.m. Then he gets up and does it all over again.

No friggin’ way a human being can stay on top of their game on a schedule like this… for six years no less. One can only try to survive under this regimen, not lead effectively. Andy Card is a loyal, talented guy, but he needs to move on simply for his own physical and mental well being.

Give John Snow the boot at Treasury and stick Card in there.

No one has had as crappy a year as Bill Frist – except perhaps the President, but that’s another story. The Senate Majority Leader has been hounded by charges of personal corruption stemming from allegations of insider trading, which is a phony story that maintains legs because of a largely failed effort to explain to the media what happened.

For Frist, it’s very unfortunate to have been lumped into the DC scandal story as the number three rogue — right behind Jack Abramoff and Tom DeLay. Frist is an honest pol in government for all of the right reasons, and doesn’t have a dishonest bone in his body. Regardless, he’s getting sucked into the sleazy DC insider rathole, and no longer wants to deal with the B.S. of running for the Presidency.

Under the header, “Frist Doesn’t Sound Like a Candidate,” The State’s Lee Bandy writes:

“U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist blew into town Saturday sounding — and acting — like something other than a potential 2008 presidential candidate.

“The Tennessee Republican came and went almost unnoticed — which apparently was the way he wanted it. There was little advance publicity and virtually no media.

“The venue was the 125-member state GOP executive committee, not exactly a fountain of youth. His brief address lacked any red meat or applause lines normally reserved for stump speeches.

“He’s not running for president,” surmised Columbia-based political consultant Terry Sullivan.”

Bandy then explains the insider trading allegation, and the fact that Evangelical voters are upset with his
support for stem cell development.

If Frist is really serious about a run for President, there’s no way there would be no advance publicity and no media — that’s just not the way it works, especially for a neighbor from Tennessee presumably hoping to emulate the ‘ol Lee Atwater South Carolina firewall a la Bush 41 and 43.

This is a significant development, and good news for George Allen – whose staff was busy working the phones today.

Just looking at NY1′s Inside City Hall video from yesterday and besides busting NYS AG candidate Andrew Cuomo as an empty suit with nothing but the Cuomo name, Mark Green also dismissed Cuomo’s record as federal housing secretary under Bill Clinton.

This may simply prompt the 125th St denizen to get out on the hustings and say very convincingly and effectively (as always) that Cuomo did all these great things for NYC and other upstate metro areas like Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse. “Housing” is almost always on the list of priorities of base Dem constituencies, and federal stats can be “massaged” to say or purport almost any desired perception.

Regardless, Green’s comments, and their tenor, show where this race is headed.