Washington, DC – While the news from Iraq, rising gas prices and Hurricane Katrina are all high profile world and national events contributing to President Bush’s dip in the polls, another political drama has unfolded over the spring and summer in Pennsylvania: day by day, week by week, and month by month, incumbent GOP Senator Rick Santorum has been sinking in electoral quicksand.

Through a combination of bad political judgment, inept news management, and the failure to articulate a coherent rationale for his reelection, Santorum has made a tough re-election against State Treasurer Bob Casey still more difficult.

To be sure, Santorum and his campaign staff are dealing with a problematic in-state generic political environment that would be cause for concern even if running a flawless campaign. But despite a robust, successful fundraising effort, Santorum has spent the entire summer on the run and on the defensive – largely of his own making.

Columnist Robert Novak, recently noting the “negative political fallout” from Santorum’s new book, It Takes a Family, summed up the situation by recently reporting, “Republican insiders in Washington fear that Sen. Rick Santorum… is in serious danger of losing his seat next year to his Democratic challenger because of a poorly planned and ill-conceived campaign.” And after debating himself in the media for the better part of the summer as to his presidential aspirations, the Senator and his campaign are coming to terms with polling data, from a variety of sources that show Casey hovering close to or slightly above 50%, while Santorum sits between 38-42%.

A private poll conducted for a Pennsylvania business interest over the past two weeks that has not been made public has the race at 45-40%. But the poll’s internals are still troubling. Asked what they have read, seen or heard about Santorum, respondents volunteer answers such as “gay bashing,” the “anti-Hillary, anti-woman book,” “Terry Schiavo,” and other emotional, hot button topics that drive opposition intensity.

As his team looks over the political field of play, one of Santorum’s most pressing challenges will be to elevate his numbers among GOP and independent-leaning women in the Philadelphia metro area.

Leslie Gromis-Baker, widely regarded as the most seasoned GOP political organizer in Pennsylvania, says “The biggest challenge as well as the biggest opportunity for Rick is to get back southeastern Republicans who have voted Democrat in the last several statewide elections. One thing we learned in Pennsylvania from the 2004 presidential election is that a candidate can get virtually every vote west of Chester County and still lose the state if you lose the Philadelphia media market in a landslide.”

Despite the lingering unhappiness and unease among Republicans about Santorum’s chances, there is finally a sense the campaign is attempting to turn the corner, and understands “the urgent need to recalibrate,” as one DC-based GOP pollster gingerly put it.

The campaign is, in fact, staffing up and has hired GOP operative Vince Galko, the former executive director of the state GOP, as campaign manager. Philadelphia-based GOP consultant Jeff Jubelirer expressed satisfaction with Santorum’s hiring of Galko, and predicts the former executive director of the state GOP will quickly bring order and discipline to the campaign. “The good news is that Vince is now aboard, and he has great insight, presence and is well respected.”

So, where to go from here? Besides maintaining its aggressive fundraising pace, the Santorum campaign needs to move on four key fronts:

First, provide Santorum the opportunity to spotlight his signature tax and economic positions that draw a contrast on this key front with Casey. In the process, he needs to develop the storyline and subtext that Casey is a cipher and stand-in for liberal special interests that are an impediment to economic and personal freedom. To do so, the campaign should embark upon a series of intelligent, serious, in-state and DC policy addresses that spotlight Santorum’s strengths, and generate better proactive press coverage of his record on key pocketbook issues.

Second, Santorum must do what senior Senator Arlen Specter did so effectively in his recent campaign: ensure voters understand how much Pennsylvania benefits from having a Republican in the U.S. Senate. Both Specter, who owes Santorum big time, and the Bush Administration behind the scenes, can help ratchet-up the incumbency news angle and help drive surrogate and third party validation media opportunities. Santorum has been dabbling with the “benefits of incumbency” theme all year, but now needs more juice.

Third, now is the time for in-state third parties to begin hammering Casey. The news media information flow and coverage is all anti-Santorum. Where are all of Santorum’s in-state supporters? Where is the state party? Until others step up to the plate to confront Casey – which also provides a news hook – there’s no good reason for Casey to come out of hiding.

And fourth, from a press management standpoint, Santorum must make himself less available to the media. He’s always responding to reporters, events and circumstances — not systematically driving any agenda. Santorum backers attribute his bad press to the fact he “tells it like it is” and voters appreciate the directness. Not exactly. He can still tell it like it is — but not as frequently, and more selectively in a topical context. The Senator and his campaign staff need to practice a more disciplined, sophisticated news management strategy that provides accessibility, yet does so in more controlled environments.

In general, Pennsylvania GOP operatives are more optimistic than their GOP colleagues inside the beltway, and believe there is a wild card yet to be introduced into the mix. Casey, it is said, is an empty suit and poor campaigner who lacks substance and has no policy depth when it comes to debating weighty national and international issues. And despite being ridiculed and having absorbed unanswered blows for months, several supporters point out that Santorum’s public demeanor is remarkably sunny and cheerful. It remains to be seen, they say, how Casey will handle the big league combat in what will surely be the toughest Senate contest of the entire 2006 cycle.

As one Harrisburg lobbyist coolly observed, “Santorum needs to make Casey an unacceptable alternative — which may be the easiest thing to accomplish. And he has a year and plenty of cash to accomplish this, if he’s willing to do it.”

From a full disclosure standpoint, Gordon Hensley is a contributor to Santorum’s 2006 reelection campaign.

Washington, DC — The names Mike Glover and David Yepsen don’t ring a bell with most Americans. But in the arcane, esoteric world of presidential primary politics, these two top Iowa reporters for the Associated Press and Des Moines Register, respectively, become perhaps the most significant political reporters in America when the eyes of the nation tune into the Iowa caucus.

Having been around since the fabled 1976 primary that helped produce Jimmy Carter
and the 1980 Reagan-Bush free for all, no one goes through an Iowa GOP or Democrat presidential primary gauntlet without their reporting scrutiny and veteran eye for reporting reality on the ground and cutting through the B.S.

That’s why the September 15 story in the Register by Yepsen, “Pataki Visit to Iowa Bodes Well for His Future,” is so significant in the eyes of hard core campaign watchers in DC and elsewhere who help shape the ever-changing contours of the race, the pecking order and the general campaign zeitgeist. Pataki’s trip, according to a GOP lobbyist, was even the subject of discussion at the Palm – ground zero for DC chatter.

Not only did Pataki garner great news coverage — confidently and humorously waving off protesters – but prominent local elected officials and opinion leaders speculated that while he’ll be called upon to address his pro-choice record, the New York Governor has the capacity to break through the clutter of candidates.

“You don’t have to win Iowa,” said Cedar Rapids Mayor Paul Pate, “You just have to place well in Iowa if you want to stay in the game,” reported Yepsen in the Register. “Based on the field we see today, I think he’s definitely in the top three.” It was even reported that Pataki “has a kind of rock star quality because of his leadership after September 11.”

Moreover, Pataki cleverly mentioned as a news hook that the post-9/11 New York response should be a model for the nation as it assesses the best way for local, state and federal authorities to deal with catastrophe. It’s a stark contrast from the New Orleans debacle, and Pataki is an obvious comparative beneficiary.

And trips of this nature just don’t happen. Far from it – they take weeks of preparation to step through the politics, the message, the speaking venues, the photo-ops, the logistics and a host of other variables that, more often than not, change or go awry at the eleventh hour.

Some quick reporting on this trip after the fact did, in fact, find that some solid staff work was the primary reason for the success of the Iowa swing, and two veteran Iowa GOP operatives gave the trip, and Pataki, high marks. The fact that Pataki also garnered a statewide AP photo in addition to the Glover AP wire coverage is also notable. Always a nice bonus — and never a given.

But there was another audience that noticed the trip: the two most important inside baseball DC-centric 24/7/365 all politics-all-the-time outlets, “The Note” from ABC News, and National Journal’s Hotline, gave the story prominent space and play.

Great coverage in Iowa from Yepsen, and it being noticed and commented upon in DC, is worth its weight in gold. The shelf life is short, and the reviews and news content won’t always be this good, but this is a great way to generate some priceless buzz, and to start the long, punishing slog through the Iowa caucus, where Pataki’s low expectations and small town roots and personal demeanor have the potential to surprise.

Washington, DC — As the Katrina blame game in Washington escalates — in full, sorry display on the Sunday talk circuit — there appears to be the beginning of an effort to drag former PA Governor and Homeland Security chief Tom Ridge into the culpability tar pit.

Consider this key second graph in David Sanger’s New York Times story this morning:

“But it fact, just hours before, in a meeting in the Oval Office, Mr. Brown’s fate had been all but sealed.
Michael Chertoff, the onetime judge who has told friends he was shocked by the state of the Department of Homeland Security, which he inherited earlier this year, told Mr. Bush and the White House chief of staff, Andrew H. Card Jr., that he wanted to remove Mr. Brown from the day-to-day management of the Hurricane Katrina relief effort, although he would remain the head of FEMA.”

As very little in the subtle, nuanced reporting game in DC happens by chance — especially when it appears in the second graph of a retrospective tick tock of the FEMA/Homeland Security disaster — Tom Ridge needs to watch his back, and push back immediately behind the scenes.

Someone with Chertoff and/or others in the White House are trying to drag Ridge into the culpability loop.

Watch out Governor.

Washington, DC — For those who either for business or pleasure consume a voluminous amount of news of all kinds throughout their day, there’s little question that the New York Times has just blown away all other comers from the standpoint of the sheer quality, volume and pertinence of its reporting. Just an incredible effort.

And the New Orleans Times Picayune, which has been cobbling together an online edition of the paper since the Katrina disaster also merits accolades. The sheer resourcefulness and determination of the Times-Picayune to report on the biggest local story in decades — even without their newsroom, and without all the adornments — is truly impressive.

Can’t stand either of their editorial pages, but their reporting efforts have just been monumental.