Those who have worked in the campaign business for the better part of their professional lives can walk into almost any statewide campaign headquarters in the contest’s final months and, just by the vibe and feel, walk out five minutes later with a fairly accurate picture of a campaign’s viability, sense of purpose and level of professionalism.

But with the TN GOP Senate primary between Van Hilleary, Ed Bryant, Bob Corker and Beth Harwell still over one year away, a regular check of the candidates’ websites, their level of press activity, early fundraising data, an assessment of candidate-funded polls and informal conversations with GOP consultants in DC and TN, will have to serve as a proxy for a campaign hq drop by.

Thus far, considering all of the above, Ed Bryant must be considered the front-runner.

Bryant, who made the intelligent decision to hire consultant Sonny Scott to direct his campaign, is laying  down in methodical, diligent fashion the brick by brick, county by county, voter by voter effort that pays off in the end. Bryant’s campaign is also completely dominating the earned media information flow at this point, launching a regular flurry of news releases both to tout positive campaign developments and take a few shots at Hilleary and Corker.

What many don’t understand is that despite the fact 90% of this early press activity doesn’t even get covered, it provides a perceptual boost among grass roots GOP activists, money people and the handful of reporters already tuned in to the race this early. This is important, not just because it helps influence fundraising, but because it helps establish a preliminary pecking order, along with whatever public and private numbers are floating around in the spin backwash.

Several days ago, Bryant dumped out some new numbers from his pollster, Ethridge & Associates, showing Bryant with 34.2%, Hilleary with 16.4%, Corker with 6.4% and Harwell at 2.4%. One DC Republican with a good deal of statewide Tennessee experience, suggested that while he thinks Bryant does indeed lead, it’s likely with a smaller margin over Hilleary — more like a 10-12 point lead. Nevertheless, the 4.4% MoE can easily account for the Bryant results, and the timing of the data release was perfect — coinciding with FEC quarterly reporting and a slow early summer news environment. One can be certain this info, despite its source, is percolating through the GOP fundraising community in Tennesee and Washington.

Scott, a veteran of the ’94 Frist TN GOP primary, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), and a variety of other campaigns, has also seen to it that Hilleary and Corker are hounded by alleged vulnerabilities — which become real after much repetition.

From the standpoint of the Bryant campaign, Hilleary is a prior statewide loser to Gov. Phil Bredesen who ran a lousy general election campaign, and who will do so again — possibly against Dem Rep. Harold Ford Jr., who should not be taken lightly. Interestingly, the Bryant campaign released the fact that Hilleary leads Corker 31% to 8% in a gubernatorial primary — data that gives ammo to those local GOP conservative activists who don’t want to make a choice between Bryant and Hilleary, and that can, in theory, be used to suggest to Hilleary he should again run for Governor, not the Senate. On the flipside, of course, the release of this question is a sure sign the Bryant camp sees Hilleary as an ongoing threat.

Bob Corker, meanwhile, according to the Bryant camp, has a tax increase problem from his days as Chattanooga Mayor, and is inconsistent on right to life issues. Moreover, they say, his fundraisers are liberals who have backed TN Democrats for years.

Corker, easily the best campaigner of the group, has hired top tier media consultant, Scotty Howell, and in intent on raising a big pile of money. Just as Frist outspent Corker significantly in the hotly-contested ’94 GOP primary, Corker would logically seek to develop a huge cash on hand advantage for the paid media endgame. One observer said Corker’s obvious victory scenario would involve Hilleary and Bryant slugging it out for a majority of conservatives, thus splitting that key determinative primary constituency, and then getting all of the "moderates" as well as just enough conservatives to put him over the top. Very, very dicey proposition to thread the needle in that fashion.

From a full disclosure standpoint, I’ve contributed financially to Corker’s ’06 campaign, have worked for him in the past, and believe he would be an excellent U.S. Senator. Hilleary, who like Corker has yet to establish and convey a clear, concise rationale for his candidacy, has a good geographic base upon which to build support, but is virtually invisible compared to Bryant.

Bottom line: Still early, but Ed Bryant is setting the pace in this contest. We’ll take another look at this increasingly interesting race in the fall. 

Despite the fact my day job does not entail partisan political hackery and parroting the party line, I’m going to do so anyway: Karl Rove is going nowhere, and he will easily survive the lynch mob we see in DC this week for three primary reasons:

First, and per usual, the GOP is already kicking the teeth in of the “liberals” and “soft on terrorist”
Democrat inquisitors demanding Rove’s head. Bush/Rove and Company ALWAYS win when they move the dialogue back to a debate on being tough on terrorists versus being appeasers. That’s exactly what’s happening as GOP talking heads are out lambasting Rove critics as the same bunch of MoveOn.org and Howard Dean foreign policy wimps that were dismissed in the presidential contest. Good move, and it will work.

Second, with all the Supreme Court intrigue swirling around Washington with uncertainty as to what Bush will do next regarding appointments, he and his team have the option of naming a justice when it suits their schedule and needs. Bush’s naming of a new justice to replace Sandra Day O’Conner will quickly swamp any coverage of the Rove situation, and those Dems firing at Rove will be forced to redirect their fire at whomever Bush selects.

Third, this is strictly a DC Beltway story. The fact that dirty politics and under-handed activities occur in Washington isn’t exactly news to anyone outside of town — it just isn’t, and won’t be. Joe Wilson? Valerie Plame? Karl Rove? Yellow cake uranium?… who cares?

Especially in the wake of the London bombings, people want the terrorists to suffer — and lilly-livered hand-wringing from the Howard Dean/Michael Moore crowd about mean Karl Rove and those terrible GOP henchmen has no audience except for the base.

The Dems hold no cards. This fight is already over.

While not following it on a daily basis, I catch the NYC Mayor’s race coverage sporadically. Yet, even from DC — and even as a casual observer of this contest — it feels as though Freddie Ferrer has turned a corner from the Diallo debacle, and is about to get back into the race from a press coverage perspective.

The “comeback” storyline is nicely set-up as Mark Green tells the New York Times’ Pat Healy today that Ferrer’s “make no waves equanimity” since the gaffe firestorm has been smart. He’s right. Since then, Ferrer has shipped in a new, well-regarded manager, Nick Baldick, and there appears (“appears” is just as good as reality in this instance) to be more order, the semblance of a strategy, and a sense that the media pack is about to flog someone else for a while. And along comes Virginia Fields at just the right time. While her transgression is a basic process story screw-up — and not to the damage level of Ferrer’s gaffe — the timing is perfect.

Campaign coverage is always cyclical — and look for Freddie Ferrer to see some daylight upfield, and look for the Mayor, towards the end of next month, to begin absorbing some big shots in the press. Considering the vastness of the Bloomberg paid media arsenal, it may not matter much. But the bottom line is that Ferrer is about to get some breaks — because of both good campaign management and the inevitable changing dynamic of the campaign storyline itself.

The White House political team and other intelligent GOP operatives around town all agree political lightning rod Rep. Katherine Harris has little chance of defeating Florida Sen. Ben Nelson — and they’re correct. Harris is ill-suited for a bare knuckle statewide contest, has no real achievements in her short-lived congressional career, and has never undergone the level of scrutiny she would be ultimately subjected to.    

Nothing against her personally, but she’s a lightweight. It’s a mystery as to why GOP consultant Ed Rollins, a decent fellow, signed on to her effort, except that he’d receive mucho exposure himself. Rollins loves the game, and this is his ticket to ride for a pr rush. But, to her credit, she’s also lined up the Tarrance Group for her polling — among the nation’s best polling outfits.

Nelson can be defeated, and it’s imperative Florida House Speaker Allan Bense jumps into the contest to challenge Harris in a GOP primary. Bense can win; Harris cannot — it’s that simple.

I really like Tucker Carlson — but the format of his new MSNBC show, "The Situation," has yet to gel. I’d kill the bit in the end with the bow tie undone, and standing around b.s.’ing with Willie someone about news that didn’t make the show. It’s an overplay to informality, and just not needed.

Tucker’s somewhat libertarian views on medical marijuana, his fondness for Jerry Garcia and the Grateful Dead – and other "unconservative" offbeat polemics makes the point. You need to watch the show a few times before getting a fix on where he’s coming from as an open minded conservative who likes to have fun. Hooray for that.

As Tucker recently interviewed Phil Lesh of the Dead for his past show on PBS, his new show would benefit from a quick 5-7 minute segment that incorporates a few hipper guests and topics — but intellectually suited and grounded.

But while the format still needs work, the talent is eclectic and superb. Jay Severin, Rachel Maddow and Max Kellerman all add a bit of non-beltway sensibility and fresh air to the bloviating dc chatter we see so much of in cable tv newsland. Severin is smart, and has an interesting and ironic sense of humor that’s amusing. Max Kellerman, a super bright Columbia grad and wonder boy of boxing moderators is also excellent. As a boxing addict who respects his talents, it was great to see him tapped for the show. Very diverse, non-establishment perspectives.

The show, right now, is like a good bottle of wine: still young , still a bit tightly wound; needs to open up a bit. give it time.