Category Archives: Campaign 2012

The 2012 Election Aftermath Analysis

Looking past the fact the 2012 election was a GOP debacle, and the allegation — fair or not — that the GOP has a “polling problem,” the election result is best analyzed by a Resurgent Republic analysis authored by by Whit Ayres, Jon McHenry and Luke Frans. Charlie Cook said this analysis, specifically, is the best he has yet to peruse.

The basics of the analysis:

The 2012 election marks the year when the inexorable march of demographic change caught up with the Republican Party. While multiple factors led to President Obama’s reelection, none was as important as rapidly increasing demographic change in the American electorate. Mitt Romney won white voters by a landslide, 59 to 39 percent, in the process achieving the highest percentage of the white vote of any Republican
challenging an incumbent president in the history of exit polling. Yet that was not enough to craft a majority of the popular vote.

Resurgent Republic’s 2012 post-election survey polled 1000 likely voters nationally, starting on the night of the election, November 6, and concluding on Thursday, November 8. The results were weighted to conform to the popular vote outcome of 50 percent for Obama and 48 percent for Romney. Following are key highlights of the survey. Full results are available at resurgentrepublic.com.

Structure of the Electorate from Exit Polls

1. The 2012 electorate contained the smallest share of white voters and the largest share of nonwhite voters in American history. White voters constituted 72 percent of the electorate, down from 74 percent in 2008, 77 percent in 2004, and 81 percent in 2000.

African-Americans made up the next largest share at 13 percent, the same as 2008, and up from 11 percent in 2004 and 10 percent in 2000.

Hispanics constituted 10 percent of the electorate in 2012, compared to 9 percent in 2008, 8 percent in 2004, and 7 percent in 2000.

Asian voters made up 3 percent of the 2012 electorate, an increase from 2 percent each in 2008, 2004, and 2000.

2. Mitt Romney won a larger share of the white vote than either John McCain or George W. Bush. Romney defeated Obama by 59 to 39 percent among whites, compared to McCain winning whites by 55 to 43 percent over Obama in 2008, while Bush won whites by 58 to 41 percent over John Kerry in 2004 and by 54 to 42 percent over Al Gore in 2000.

3. Mitt Romney won white voters in almost all demographic groups, usually by substantial margins. Romney’s campaign was extremely successful at appealing to white voters across the board, and won almost all white groups except Jewish voters.

Romney Achieves Parity on Medicare With Obama

Despite DCSpectator’s prior skepticism that the GOP in general and the Romney campaign in particular could achieve a level of parity with the Democrats on the issue of protecting Medicare, Kaiser data suggests the Romney campaign has largely succeeded.

Even though seniors reject the Medicare-reform proposal Romney has endorsed, Kaiser finds, they trust him more than they do President Obama when it comes to the future of the program. Forty-eight percent of seniors trust Romney, compared with 43 percent who trust Obama.

Compare that to the numbers on policy: 72 percent of seniors think Medicare should stay as it is, while only 18 percent would prefer the Romney system.

Seniors are a key part of Romney’s coalition, and Democrats had hoped they could use Romney’s Medicare positions to their advantage with that segment of the electorate.

It remains to be seen, however, how the issue plays in the toss-up Senate and House contests.

Polling Accuracy Reaching a Tipping Point as IVR Surveys Pollute Averaging

With dozens of polls on the presidential and congressional races out weekly in the closing phase of the 2012 campaign, many of which are IVR (robo-polls) as opposed to live caller polls, even taking an average of polls a la the Real Clear Politics average is becoming questionable.

Charlie Cook’s briefing for National Journal members this week was instructive in that he generally trashed the cacophony of polling in general and IVR polls in particular. Cook bemoaned the fact that in many Senate races, for example, “well over half” of the data reported in the media is IVR-oriented.

With the preponderance of IVR polls and response rates for live caller surveys down into single digits per 100 calls, the polling industry is seemingly at a crossroads as we close the 2012 election cycle.

Adding to the confusion is the cell phone mix of the sample, with different pollsters using different formulas to achieve what they feel to be the right percentage versus land line phones.

Until election day, we won’t be able to assess the accuracy of various data. Regardless, it seems like we’ve reached a fork in the road in terms of how pollsters will pursue their craft to achieve maximum accuracy at a time when so many variables add to the ongoing confusion.

Medicare Issue Turns Against GOP

When Mitt Romney selected Paul Ryan as his Veep nominee, and initially seized the offensive on Medicare by charging “Obamacare” was funded by actually siphoning-off Medicare dollars, too many GOP consultants rejoiced prematurely.

One NRCC operative was quoted as predicting the Democrats would retreat on Medicare, and that the GOP had turned a corner on the always controversial and dangerous issue. As Charlie Black noted, if we could ‘break-even’ on Medicare, we’d be doing quite well.

But that was then. Now? GOP candidates are well advised to fight back on the issue, but not lead with it.

That was always the best approach, and the initial glow of the first Ryan offensive has clearly worn off.

Predictable DC Drumbeat that Romney is Toast

If one listened only to the Washington Beltway echo chamber this week, the presidential campaign is over.

Not only did Romney ‘mishandle’ the sacking of the U.S. embassy in Libya, but he’s also “lost Ohio” and thus the election because of several polls confirming the President maintains a small “lead.”

And that’s one of the biggest flaws of the reporting and armchair commentary.

When one sees reporting that says Obama ‘leads’ Romney 47%-45% is state X, that’s actually terrifying news for any incumbent. This is the case in any number of states where Obama ‘leads’ Romney but is not close to 50%.

This is what GOP pollster Whit Ayres correctly calls the incumbent’s ‘never-never land of 47%, 48% and 49%.” Hitting 50% +1 for Obama will be a continual uphill fight in a variety of battleground states like Florida and Virginia — no matter what we hear and see now — due to the economy and horrendous right track/wrong track #’s.

Granted, Romney still has quite a bit to do in terms of even getting to the point of possibly closing the deal — he’s indeed behind, still needs to package his agenda more succinctly, and the ruthlessness of the Obama campaign has kept him back on his heels.

But still, campaigns change quickly.

With debates and so many surprises left in store, anything can happen — and Romney is very much in the thick of the contest, no matter what one sees from DC talking heads, most of whom, pathetically, have never even worked on a campaign.

Romney Wave or Obama Squeaker?

As the GOP Convention convenes in Tampa and Republicans eagerly await Mitt Romney’s acceptance speech, the sense is developing among several analysts that either Romney will pull away at the end in a modest ‘wave election’ and win a bit more handily than the current thinking, or, Obama ekes out a narrow victory.

That is very logical, and similar to the Reagan-Carter 1980 election model whereby Reagan passed the key ‘threshold of credibility’ during the debates to allow voters to feel comfortable in dumping Carter.

Presuming a strong convention speech — it’s hard to blow it — Mitt Romney will go into the critical debate phase of the campaign highly underestimated in his debating skills vis a vis Obama. Intrade and other insider spectators (mostly from DC) continue to give Obama the advantage, and generally believe he will squeak out a win with a state by state strategy — treating the presidential race as a series of statewide contests.

That’s a smart strategy for Obama, and essentially the only plausible means towards achieving a structural electoral college victory. That is still the conventional wisdom.

But with the economy in the tank, Obama’s unfav creeping ever higher, Obama hovering at 45/46/47 in a variety of key battleground states — and an underestimated Mitt Romney — I’m betting Romney, like Reagan, will pass the credibility threshold and win by 3-4 points. The corollary benefit of that small wave will be the GOP taking control of the Senate with 51 seats.

Poll: Small Business Tax Cuts Have Appeal to GOP and Dems

Tax breaks for small businesses are popular, and that’s some welcome news for those of us who run small corporations, and shoulder the lion’s share of the U.S. tax burden. Taxes are up, costs are up, and, while profits are up, working seven days is just a fact of life. Thus, working for yourself is just like a campaign — seven day work weeks. Fortunately, work is fun — but we still need to see lower tax rate, and some new data provides hope.

The good news is that a new United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll finds tax breaks for businesses are popular. When asked what Congress could do to help the economy and create jobs, the top answer picked by poll respondents (37 percent of them) to improve the economy was “passing tax cuts for small businesses to encourage them to hire more workers.” Republicans particularly embraced that approach (52 percent), but it was also the most popular option selected among both Democratic voters (35 percent) and independents (32 percent).

Help on the horizon.

DC Slowly Understanding Romney Can Win

While all eyes are on the Wisconsin recall tonite, and no declared winner yet, am going to have to say how slow DC moves in recognizing Mitt Romney is more likely than not to win the Presidency. Unsurprisingly, most of official Washington is relatively oblivious to the unfolding dynamic.

When Obama senior campaign adviser David Axelrod showed up in Boston to lead the thrashing of Mitt Romney, this was reminiscent of the Bush/Quayle ’92 campaign — which dispatched a team to Little Rock to trash Bill Clinton’s Arkansas record.

Unfortunately, I was there, and one of those in charge (to my chagrin).

It didn’t work then, and it won’t work now.

The only issue is jobs and economic leadership.

Barack Obama will likely take his place along side George H.W. Bush as a one term president. The current President, like Bush, is slowly sinking into the quicksand caused by poor economic stewardship.

Plain and simple.

POS/Hart Survey Underscores Potency of Attacking Lawmaker Votes to Cut Medicare

As the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives begin making crucial budgetary decisions for FY 2013, a recent survey conducted for the Alliance for Quality Nursing Home Care by Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research Associates underscores the saliency political operatives find in attacking incumbents who expose themselves to such attacks by supporting Medicare cuts — in this case to nursing homes.

The survey (January 26-30, 800 RV’s [700 landline/100 cell] +/- 3.46%) finds 82% of RV’s oppose reducing Medicare funding for seniors’ nursing home care; 90% say funding for U.S. nursing home care should either “remain the same” or “increase”; and, interestingly, a full 69% support the concept of phasing-in a controversial 2011 Obama Medicare regulation that reduced Medicare funding by 11.1% all at one time.

With Republicans and Democrats both suffering major losses in back to back congressional elections — as each side in successive cycles absorbed attacks ads accusing incumbents for cutting seniors’ Medicare benefits — it’s no surprise both sides are circling each other warily as the FY 2013 budget negotiations take shape.

Private polling done for a health care provider group in Texas last year, as well as polling conducted for the Texas Tribune, found cuts to seniors’ nursing home care are among the most unpopular cuts of nearly a dozen options mentioned. This is not lost on ad makers, pollsters, campaign operatives and lawmakers themselves.

Gingrich the DC “Outsider”

As the Florida GOP race moves to Florida and a new Rasmussen survey finds Gingrich with 41%, Romney with 32% and Santorum at 11%, the Romney campaign is wrestling with the fact Newt has completely turned the tables and is now the insurgent ‘outsider’ who will bring change to Washington.

Of course, this is preposterous. Gingrich can’t change Washington, because he is Washington.

This is a dangerous time for Romney, and the fact Gingrich has flipped the insider vs. outsider dynamic on its head with relative ease, and through sheer force of personality and intellect, will require Romney to flip the insider-outsider table back over. What a brawl.